Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Master Thesis

Étude sur le paramétrage de l'outil d'aide à la décision Mileos ® contre le mildiou de la pomme de terre : analyses de sensibilité et ajustement

Abstract : The regulatory context and social pressure to reduce the use of phytosanitary products lead to resort to using decision support systems because they represent scope for improvement for the current agricultural production systems. Mileos® is the French decision support system to control potato late blight, a disease causing great damage to this crop. It is based on a dynamic mechanistic model and it has historical basis. Its interest is to predict late blight epidemics to be able to help users choose whether or not they should take action. The system must indeed give treatments advice at the right time and with parsimony. However, many parameters whose values are uncertain are used by the model and they introduce a large source of uncertainty in the forecast. In this report, methods of sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify the amount of uncertainty in the model outputs attributable to the parameters. Observations were then used to redefine more precise values for the most important parameters selected according sensitivity analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis have shown that two parameters, primary inoculum and maximum sporulation potential, largely influence the forecast given by the model. New values for these two parameters were suggested from the results obtained by the comparison between the simulations and the observations, respectively 0.1 and 100.
Document type :
Master Thesis
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [11 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-01130387
Contributor : Agrocampus Ouest <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, March 11, 2015 - 4:18:16 PM
Last modification on : Monday, July 6, 2020 - 3:38:21 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, April 17, 2017 - 8:50:01 AM

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : dumas-01130387, version 1

Collections

Citation

Alicia Chaigneau. Étude sur le paramétrage de l'outil d'aide à la décision Mileos ® contre le mildiou de la pomme de terre : analyses de sensibilité et ajustement. Sciences agricoles. 2014. ⟨dumas-01130387⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

318

Files downloads

1488