Spatio-temporal analysis of the exposure of motorists to submersions of roads due to flash floods in the Gard region

Abstract : Flash floods are considered as one of the most deadly natural disasters due to their short temporal scales that leave little time for exposed people to response. Recent studies have shown that almost half of the victims are vehicle-related and so daily mobility becomes an important factor which affects social exposure to flash flooding. This report presents the results of understanding and exploiting the potentialities of MobRISK – an activity-based mobility model used to simulate motorists’ exposure in flash flood events by integrating mobility adaptation behaviors with environmental perturbations. The first application of the model is conducted in the Alès area of the Gard department in southern of France for the flash flood event on 8-9 September 2002. Based on the comprehension of the model, the parameters of different factors in the model are changed to evaluate the effects of these factors on the motorists’ exposure to road submersion in flash floods events. The results of running different simulations for different scenarios show that there is a big variability between each simulation and between each individual exposure and the changes of the parameters in the decision-making model have not really affected the final result. The future work will have to explain the results of the simulations of the model and to investigate further ways to reduce the variability of exposure between different simulations.
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Master Thesis
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Kim Thanh Nguyen. Spatio-temporal analysis of the exposure of motorists to submersions of roads due to flash floods in the Gard region. Life Sciences [q-bio]. 2018. ⟨dumas-02011699⟩

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