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, Titre : Prédiction à trois ans des risques de troubles liés à l'usage de l'alcool et de conséquences médico-psycho-sociales, 2014.

, De nombreux facteurs sont impliqués dans le développement de conséquences médicopsycho-sociales liées à la consommation d'alcool. Dans cette étude, nous présentons une échelle composite du risque à 3 ans de six conséquences médico-psycho-sociales liées à la consommation d'alcool à l'aide d'une cohorte longitudinale, National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions

, Nous avons coupé aléatoirement notre échantillon en 2. A l'aide d'un modèle de régression pas-à-pas, nous avons examiné dans l'échantillon de développement les effets de cinq facteurs identifiés comme des prédicteurs potentiels de six conséquences liées à la consommation d'alcool : les dimensions de la consommation d'alcool évalués par l'AUDIT-C, le sexe et l'âge. Nous avons ensuite utilisé un algorithme pour créer un score

, 1% (N=232) des symptômes de sevrage, 1,6% (N=174) des problèmes légaux, 2,4% (N=268) de retentissement psychologique et 1,8% (N=194) avaient eu des tremblements/convulsions au cours de la période de suivi de 3 ans. La valeur prédictive des équations de risque était bonne voire très bonne (index C allant de 0,754 à 0,829) et calibrait bien dans l'échantillon de validation Nous avons réalisé des scores pour favoriser une évaluation personnalisée claire. Nous espérons que cet outil pourra être utilisé au cours d'entretiens brefs et permettra une, 1% (N=234) des problèmes interpersonnels, vol.16

, Mots clés (français) : Alcool ; échelle composite ; conséquences médico-psycho-sociales