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Master Thesis

Sommes-nous bayésiens ? Une expérience sur les biais de jugement et le poids des impressions

Abstract : Based on the assessment that humans do not think as a bayesian would, we suggest a model of bounded rationality assuming that people perceive images by sequences. In the likelihood judgment process, people relies on both the normative value of the probability of an event and the impression that the event would eventually occurs. The study set up a model of human judgment by specifying a function of "impression" and enables the rigorous explanation of the use of heuristics in humain reasoning. Thank to three experiments, we highlight the model's relevance. The first takes up the Linda's design, initiated by Kahneman and Tversky that putted into light the conjunction fallacy. The other two are inspired by the lawyers and engineers' experiment led by the same authors. All the results stress the explanatory power of the notion of "impressions".
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-00643671
Contributor : Centre de Documentation Du Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, November 23, 2011 - 12:27:52 PM
Last modification on : Monday, February 22, 2021 - 3:26:02 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, December 5, 2016 - 8:34:54 AM

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  • HAL Id : dumas-00643671, version 1

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Anna Bernard. Sommes-nous bayésiens ? Une expérience sur les biais de jugement et le poids des impressions. Microstructure des marchés [q-fin.TR]. 2011. ⟨dumas-00643671⟩

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