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Master Thesis

Analyse des pertes de récoltes à l’échelle de l’exploitation agricole dans le cadre de l’assurance multirisques climatique en France métropolitaine

Abstract : Farms are exposed to many types of risk, including climate risk, which has a direct impact on production in terms of quantity and quality. Many tools are available to the farmer to support his income in case of climate risk. These tools include crop insurance or basic contract since 2016. This is one of the risk management tools of the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy. The purpose of this report is to identify the risk exposure of farms, to characterize it and to apply the crop insurance to assess its effectiveness in supporting farmers' income in the event of a hard blow. This analysis is carried out using a method of modeling crop losses related to climate risks in metropolitan France over the period 2000-2016. This report consists of five parts. The first part details the different types of risks and the risk management tools in agriculture. The characteristics of the basic contract are presented. The second part of this report is a preliminary study on the sample made to carry out the modeling. The sample is created from the public database “RICA” (Agricultural Accounting Information Network). The sample studied consists of 3,623 farms divided into different specialties or “OTEX” (Technical-Economic Orientation). Only 3 “OTEX” are studied here: field crops, viticulture and fruits. The study on this sample highlights several limitations of which the main one (the calculation of the yield for small areas) is due to the lack of data. Nevertheless, the sample is representative of the “RICA” for a given year and crop. The third part is the analysis of the risk exposure of farms. This is done by modeling the loss rates by crop, farm and year. The results highlight a classification of crops according to their exposure where fruits are in first position. Some risks are systemic and therefore generate very high losses: droughts and floods for field crops, frost and hail for viticulture and fruit. An MCA was also carried out to identify characteristics common to the most exposed farms. The fourth part is the application of the basic contract and its first level. Insured losses, total losses, indemnity and insurance premium are modeled. This section shows that the base contract is adapted to major climatic risks with the I / P ratio (indemnity / insurance premium) well above 1 for years where the risks are systemic. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of farmers are affected each year and are not compensated. The fifth part therefore proposes a discussion about possible ways of improving this contract. A reflection is first conducted on the modified parameters to make the tool more attractive. A second reflection is more general on the overall operation of the basic contract by comparing with other foreign insurance systems.
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Submitted on : Thursday, October 22, 2020 - 12:31:38 PM
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Dorothée Kapsambelis. Analyse des pertes de récoltes à l’échelle de l’exploitation agricole dans le cadre de l’assurance multirisques climatique en France métropolitaine. Gestion des risques [q-fin.RM]. 2018. ⟨dumas-02965609⟩



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