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Master Thesis Year : 2020

Subjective Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Bangladesh

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze how subjective perceptions of climate change of farmers in Bangladesh affect the implementation of on-farm adaptation strategies to climate change. I present a model of subjective perceptions and adaptation in response to a change in climatic conditions. The empirical analysis is based on a unique national-representative panel dataset of rural households in Bangladesh and adopts a two-step approach disentangling the role of subjective perceptions on on-farm adaptation. I assess the accuracy of beliefs by comparing subjective probabilities to historical meteorological data and find considerable heterogeneity in beliefs and accuracy, depending on weather events and seasonal patterns. Moreover, I test whether farmers are subject to confirmation bias, finding that they tend to recall information and overweight evidence in a way that it confirms their own beliefs. The accuracy of farmers’ beliefs explains differences in the adaptation decision-making process. A detailed comprehension of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies can significantly contribute to the design of adequate policies for agricultural security.
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Dates and versions

dumas-03045218 , version 1 (07-12-2020)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : dumas-03045218 , version 1

Cite

Guglielmo Zappalà. Subjective Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Bangladesh. Economics and Finance. 2020. ⟨dumas-03045218⟩
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