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Master Thesis

Création et validation d’un modèle de prédiction du nombre de passages journaliers dans le service des urgences de l’Hôpital Pellegrin

Abstract : The volume of daily visits in the emergency department is constantly increasing. Along with this increase, the number of hospitalization beds is decreasing. Forecasting the daily volume of visits in the emergency room could help improve the organization of hospitals resources. We retrospectively recovered the number of daily visits from the emergency department of Bordeaux University hospital over the period of January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2018 in order to create a generalized additive model (GAM) for providing the number of visits each day in the emergency department taking into account: calendar data, the previous number of daily visits from the 7th to the 13th day and meteorological data. From January 2010 to December 2018, 486,390 visits were recorded in the emergency department. The number of daily visits increased between 2010 and 2018, with more foot traffic on Mondays and weekends. In 2019, 57,722 cases were recorded with an average number of daily visits of 158 and we were able to correctly predict the daily flow, 83.79% of the days with a 10% margin error. 4.67% of the time, the number of visits were overestimated, and 11.54% of the situations were underestimated. We created a model allowing us to predict the number of daily visits in the emergency department by taking into account the flow of previous years, including calendar and meteorological variables.
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03085214
Contributor : Médecine Ub <>
Submitted on : Monday, December 21, 2020 - 4:10:34 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, January 27, 2021 - 3:12:40 AM

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  • HAL Id : dumas-03085214, version 1

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Florent Bouteloup. Création et validation d’un modèle de prédiction du nombre de passages journaliers dans le service des urgences de l’Hôpital Pellegrin. Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]. 2020. ⟨dumas-03085214⟩

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