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Master Thesis

Modélisation rétrospective sur un an du recours quotidien aux urgences adultes du centre hospitalier universitaire de Caen

Abstract : Emergency department crowding increases the risk of morbi-mortality. We studied the input crowding which is the patients’ flow. Recently there have been developed mathematical models predicting the patient flow in the emergency department. Our study is looking for the different variables linked with the patient flow in the emergency department. We did a retrospective observational study about the patients flow from the emergency department of the Emergency University Hospital of Caen. The variables we used were: the daily patient flow in the emergency department, the number of DRM from SAMU 14 and the climate from 1er January 2019 to 31 January 2020. We used univariate and multivariate linear regression for our model. This model was significant with a p < 0,05 but the relationship between the variables was moderate with an R² = 0,53. The variables with a significant correlation were: the day of the week, the working days, the public holidays, the mean of monthly patient flow, the number of patients of the day before and the atmospheric pressure at sea level. Monday has proved to be the day with the greatest patient flow. These variables could be help to adapt the resources needed in the emergency ward on a weekly basis. In order to improve this model a new database with variables collected hour by hour during several years would be of help.
Document type :
Master Thesis
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03201773
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Submitted on : Monday, April 19, 2021 - 11:56:56 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 11:34:51 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, July 20, 2021 - 6:35:01 PM

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  • HAL Id : dumas-03201773, version 1

Citation

Frédéric Paris. Modélisation rétrospective sur un an du recours quotidien aux urgences adultes du centre hospitalier universitaire de Caen. Médecine humaine et pathologie. 2020. ⟨dumas-03201773⟩

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