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Master Thesis

HOMOSID‎ : une micro-simulation de l'épidémie liée au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine dans la population des hommes ayant des relations sexuelles avec des hommes en France

Abstract : HIV epidemic in France in men who have sex with men (MSM) is out of control. To understand such an epidemic, we develop a micro-simulation to make forecasts for HIV-population demography. This simulation is based mainly on the Press Gay 2004 survey which describes sexual behaviours among MSM in France and on the HIV anonymous mandatory notification. Particular attention was paid to the inclusion of the age-structure for each parameter. The principle of this simulation is the following: after simulating an initial MSM population, each individual could find a stable partner or leave his stable partner, have unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) or not with their steady/casual partner. At each UAI with an infected partner, a person could contract HIV with a probability depending on the partner's viral load which depended on the stage of the disease and its management. HIV-positive individual who did not know their status could be tested and thus accessed to management of their infection. This model was incremented monthly for a period of 20 years. We show that this micro-simulation reproduces the current stable incidence of the HIV epidemic in this population results in a significant ageing of HIV-positive MSM population in the next 15 years with a prevalence reaching 40% in 60-69 years in 2024 against 23% in 2004 and a basic reproduction number around 1.4. We show that the implementation of a "test and treat" strategy could stop this epidemic, with a basic reproduction number estimated at 0.8 ten years after the implementation of such a strategy.
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Master Thesis
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-00644026
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Submitted on : Wednesday, November 23, 2011 - 2:27:55 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - 11:36:16 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, February 24, 2012 - 2:26:16 AM

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  • HAL Id : dumas-00644026, version 1

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Anne-Sophie Jannot. HOMOSID‎ : une micro-simulation de l'épidémie liée au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine dans la population des hommes ayant des relations sexuelles avec des hommes en France. Médecine humaine et pathologie. 2011. ⟨dumas-00644026⟩

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