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Master Thesis

Comprendre la décision d'assolement des producteurs européens pour mieux prévoir les surfaces : le cas de l'Allemagne et de la Roumanie

Abstract : The decision making of the crops acreage is getting harder for farmers, as the context is more and more fluctuant (markets, agricultural policy...). This introduces a great uncertainty in the early crops acreages forecasts as the decision factors of farmers are misunderstood. That is why, Arvalis and InVivo group decided to investigate the subject in Germany and Romania to define the decision factors used by farmers. The study determinates, classifies and ranks the crop acreage decision factors, and includes them in a decision-making process. We choose a step by step approach base on a field work interviews organized with different actors of the cereals and oils market. We focused on operational results supported by statistical analysis and bibliographic researches. This analysis was completed by the construction of two typical farms in each country based on investigations realized on the farms. Depending on the production context, the decision making process that draws the crops acreage is different. In Germany, we highlighted long term trends, whereas in Romania, hazardous climatic events were changing the previsions. The economic and technical factors were explaining most of the crops acreage decides firmly on the farm. Then, for the remaining acreages, we pointed out that the factors affecting crop acreages were mainly intuitive and emotional. This work allowed us to build up a prototype of an "acreage forecast" tool.
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Master Thesis
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-00768001
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Submitted on : Thursday, December 20, 2012 - 4:44:58 PM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:45:38 PM
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  • HAL Id : dumas-00768001, version 1

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Alice Leterme. Comprendre la décision d'assolement des producteurs européens pour mieux prévoir les surfaces : le cas de l'Allemagne et de la Roumanie. Sciences agricoles. 2012. ⟨dumas-00768001⟩

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