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Master Thesis

Prédiction à 3 ans des risques liés à l’usage de l’alcool : construction et validation de scores de risque au sein d’une cohorte en population nationale

Abstract : Alcohol use is involved in many medical disorders, psychiatric disorders and social adverse events. Multiple factors are implicated in the risk of multiple medico-psycho-social consequences. In this report, we present composite scales of the 3-year risk of several medico-psycho-social consequences alcohol-related using a longitudinal nationally representative study, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC; wave 1, 2001–2002; wave 2, 2004–2005). We split randomly our sample in two. We used stepwise regression modeling in the development sample to simultaneously examine effects of five factors previously identified as potential predictors of six medico-psycho-social consequences alcohol related: the 3 dimensions of alcohol consumption explored by the AUDIT-C, gender and age. We then perform algorithm using scoring and applied it in the validation sample. Among the 11,013 participants consuming alcohol in the development sample, 16,5% (N=1,814) had a diagnosis of alcohol use disorder, 2,1% (N=234) interpersonal relationship problems, 2,1% (N=232) withdrawal symptoms, 1,6% (N=174) legal problems, 2,4% (N=268) described psychological problems and 1,8% (N=194) reported tremors or seizure during the 3-year follow-up period. Our results support that the predictive value of these risk equations was good to very good (c-index ranging from 0,754 to 0,829) and calibrated well in the validation sample. We performed algorithms using scoring to favor a personalized and readable evaluation of each risk. We hope that this tool may integrate into brief interventions and contribute to promote early awareness of the negative effects of alcohol drinking.
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Master Thesis
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https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-02279139
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Submitted on : Thursday, September 5, 2019 - 9:14:33 AM
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Marie Dosquet. Prédiction à 3 ans des risques liés à l’usage de l’alcool : construction et validation de scores de risque au sein d’une cohorte en population nationale. Médecine humaine et pathologie. 2018. ⟨dumas-02279139⟩

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