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Master Thesis

From species range-shifts to food-web alterations: consequences of global warming in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract : Global warming is impacting ocean’s physics, modifying currents, acidity and temperatures. These modifications of environmental conditions imply species range-shifts, as they tend to get closer to the pole in order to stay in their optimal range of temperatures. The Mediterranean Sea, a high pool of biodiversity but a semienclosed sea, seems particularly exposed. From a precedent work stating the distribution changes of 10 species (7 small pelagic fishes and 3 cephalopods), a statistical relationship linking probability of presence and the local abundance have been investigated, to calculate future values of biomass for the 10 studied species for 2090-2099 in the Gulf of Lions, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The future biomass were used to force an Ecopath model and evaluate the sensibility of the food-web to a few key modifications. Ecopath outputs have been analysed with ENA indices (Ecological Network Analysis) and have been used to parameter an Ecotroph model, to study the role of fishing in the global warming context. The global future biomass decrease for the studied species may weaken the Gulf of Lions ecosystem, decreasing its resistance and resilience. The decrease of the bottom-up effect of the studied species may transmit to the whole food web through cascade effects. Overfishing on high trophic level species must be controlled, to not aggravate the future situation.
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Master Thesis
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Fabien Bourinet. From species range-shifts to food-web alterations: consequences of global warming in the Mediterranean Sea. Life Sciences [q-bio]. 2019. ⟨dumas-02362775⟩

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